Is this the week that the gun will finally be taken out of Irish politics? As inter-party discussions continue, one element of negotiation centres on the IRA's possible disposal of arms.
Will they really agree to destroy their arsenals and will that mean an end to the gun as a political weapon?
Yes and no: yes, they probably will give up their arms and no, all political guns will not disappear overnight. Guns have played a role in Irish politics since guns were first invented. Traditionally they have been fired to wield political influence – by republicans trying to end British rule and by loyalists aiming to retain it.
But in recent years – and especially this week – republicans are trying to achieve political influence by not firing them.
For the first time in republican history, the gun has become a weapon of political bargaining.
Its role now is as a commodity in a process of political barter: same guns, different use.
Some republicans see this as the abandonment of the dream of Irish unity. In that respect they have a valid argument but their claim that the guns are being surrendered can be countered. They are being traded on the political commodities market and thus just being used in a different way.
In crude terms, two tons of arms gains two seats on the executive.
If the guns were smuggled into Ireland to gain political power, what better opportunity to use them – especially since no one actually gets hurt?
The problem with republican violence in the past (apart from the fact that it generally failed) has been to translate military success – or even military daring – into political advantage.
It has happened previously in republican history. In 1955, for example, Sinn Féin polled 152,310 votes and elected two candidates to Westminster – Tom Mitchell for Mid Ulster and Phil Clarke for Fermanagh-South Tyrone.
Both were disqualified because they were serving prison sentences for their parts in the unsuccessful raid for arms on the British army barracks in Omagh.
Military audacity had spawned electoral success.
For the first time since 1921 republicans are now successfully trading military achievement for political power. The impetus then and now may have come from an impending fear of military defeat, so when the opportunity came for political consolidation it was grabbed with both hands.
Part of this success is based on the fundamental principle of republican politics that the men and women who fought the last IRA campaign are always more popular than those fighting the current war. This is probably because they are unlikely to ask you to do anything risky to help them. Voting is low risk and it may even bring some personal association with the perceived glamour of past campaigns.
Even ceasefires are popular. The Official IRA ceasefire in the early 1970s, for example, was successful as a political strategy and while it did not translate into permanent political power, it certainly produced significant electoral advantage. All the IRA is doing now is using guns in a different way.
Supporters can argue that this is the best ever use of guns in Irish history. Other political parties might contend that republicans should not have been allowed access to political bargaining through violence. Although Sinn Féin would reply that bargaining power comes from their election mandate, there is no doubt that IRA violence helped them into office – even if many IRA volunteers had no idea their efforts would be used in that way. But then most major Irish political parties, apart from the SDLP, can trace their political lineage to violence.
Some unionists fear that, in giving up these guns, republicans are simply planning to replace them with others. There is merit in this argument but not in the sense that unionists usually apply it.
If, as Sinn Féin have strongly advocated, the executive gains control of law and order here, there is a strong possibility that a Sinn Féin minister will be in charge of the PSNI. The PSNI's guns would then effectively be under Sinn Féin control – in a partnership government, of course – which may be bad news for republicans opposed to the Good Friday Agreement. Why use illegal guns when political power gives you control over legal ones? Republicans could legitimately argue that the unionist party used its power in this way for 50 years.
In republican mythology the shadow of a gunman has a more romantic image than the shadow of a minister in the Northern Ireland executive. But then guns are romantic only to ballad-writers and anyway, there is little romance in politics.
Guns have shaped Irish politics for generations. This week will be no exception. But the way they are now used to influence events may be different. For that much we should be grateful.
