And they're off – probably. By the time you read this, the British Prime Minister who lives in London may have given, or at least decided to give, the people in this part of Ireland permission to hold an election. Yes, he did give his permission twice before last spring and then withdrew it because he figured we weren't ready for democracy yet. But now Tony Blair has looked at us again, and hearts in mouth, we're hoping this time we'll measure up to his standards. So that's not thunder, dear reader. It's the thud of electoral hooves at the starting line.
And how will things finish? Well now – risky business, prediction. You saw how stupid the pundits looked last time out over West Tyrone. Ooooh, too close to call, absolute nip and tuck, not a cigarette paper between them. And yet when the votes were counted, well smack my gob, a whopping 6,000+ votes between first and second. If you didn't know journalism is a profession without stain or stainmakers, you'd think some people had been trying to cod voters into voting one way rather than another. But risk, schmisk, let's have a go at forecasting. Unionists first.
Conventional wisdom says the DUP will destroy the UUP – have them for breakfast, use their bones for lunchtime soup. Ian Paisley, Sammy Wilson and Peter Robinson bark that the unionist people are fed up being represented by politicians who have no backbone, the unionist people want representatives who'll get in there, ditch the GFA and negotiate a new, more-unionist-inclined agreement.
But whatever you do, don't ask them who they'll negotiate with. And don't ask them if they really believe republicans/nationalists are in the mood to make further concessions, having already handed over the principle of consent, Articles two and three, and several officially verified acts of decommissioning. Because they won't have an answer.
Still, the unionist people could conceivably give the nod to Paisley's answerless party. If the unionist people are willing to march onto the fine bridge to the promised land constructed by the DUP, they will. But if most of them decide they're not keen on a bridge which stops half-way across the thundering abyss, they'll maybe give up on the promised land and settle for peaceful co-existence here.
Verdict: the DUP to gain about four seats, which is a considerable advance, but will still leave them in second place.
As for nationalism: the British, the Irish and the Americans are working on the assumption that Sinn Féin will knock the stuffing out of the SDLP at the polls. Unionists think the same thing. Reg Empey has even been frightening unionist voters with the vision of Gerry Adams as First Minister.
Mind you, some of us think that after our last First Minister, who was found guilty of breaking the law over appointments to cross-border bodies and who four times engineered the collapse of the assembly and executive he signed up to supporting, Coco the Clown would look good as First Minister.
What's odd on the nationalist side is why the SDLP keeps calling for an election.
Maybe they know something noone else knows – maybe their resurgence as a political party is on the way. Or maybe they figure that looking unhappy at the prospect of an election would make a bad case worse, and they'd better put on a brave face and look eager.
Verdict: Sinn Féin will pass out the SDLP by some six seats. However, only a couple of these will be taken from Mark Durkan's party.
Sinn Féin has other ways of winning seats than taking them from the SDLP, just as the SDLP has other ways of losing seats besides having them taken by Sinn Féin.
Whether a deal transpires before the election or after, a workable executive and assembly will eventually emerge.
There'll be those who'll complain about how much it costs, and others who'll froth at the mouth about the need to eject republicans before Gerry Kelly becomes minister for police, but there'll be enough decent unionists to make the thing work.
And one day, deeper into the 21st century, we'll look back and tell young people about the time when we had to wait for an Englishman in London to allow us to hold an Irish election, how as we waited we were ruled by a Welshman, two English-women, one Englishman and, of course, thousands of British troops.
And young people will gasp and ask us how in God's name we stood for it.
Raise your hand if you can't wait to get to the polls? Right, me neither.
