It is difficult to understate the historic significance of yesterday's (Tuesday) events in a secret Irish bog, at Hillsborough Castle and at Stormont. The 'deal' agreed by David Trimble and Gerry Adams with the blessing of two sovereign governments is still on the table despite the UUP leader's dramatic refusal to close on it following General de Chastelain's cautious statement. If this 'hiccup', as Sinn Féin's Conor Murphy describes it, can be overcome, there is still a prospect of a stable future for both parts of Ireland and the restoration of the Executive and north-south bodies.
The Republican leadership has signalled that the complete implementation of the Good Friday Agreement will mark the 'full and final closure of the conflict', an analysis confirmed by the IRA . In other words, the IRA tracing its ancestry back to the Irish Volunteers of the Easter Rising – will begin the process of transition from 'standing army' to 'old comrades association'. Yet, in convincing grassroots Unionism of this almost incredible shift - in John Taylor's phrase - the IRA's words will be critical. As Presbyterian minister, Dr John Dunlop has stated, 'Nationalists can read between the lines, but Unionists only read the lines'. This is especially important in view of the barrage of premeditated and furious opposition to the breakthrough from Mr Trimble's internal critics and the DUP, and the likelihood of a confused election campaign by a bitterly divided UUP.
Tony Blair's decision to hold elections to a new Assembly on Wednesday, November 26 presents major difficulties for the local political parties, however. The onset of the dark nights and the possibility of inclement weather could result in a low poll, especially in rural areas. In Northern terms this would tend to reinforce the extremes to the detriment of both pro-Agreement Unionisn and the SDLP. Veterans will recall the February election of 1969 which saw the death of Captain Terence O'Neill's efforts to lead Unionism into a brave new dawn and the emergence of pro and anti-O'Neill factions in the resulting Parliament.
On the broad nationalist side, a high turn-out in the election is almost a foregone conclusion. Since the 1981 Hunger-strikes, but particularly since the Good Friday Agreement, the nationalist community – now 45% of the population in the last Census – is highly-politicised and fiercly committed to the electoral process. The rise of Sinn Féin in the eighties finally solved the age-old pattern of abstentionism west of the bann. Sinn Féin's recent conversion to the ballot box is a far cry from the 1970s when it openly campaigned for a boycott of the polls.
For the growing Catholic Catholic middle-classes traditionally SDLP-inclined voting is now seen as a civic, almost a religious duty. The rising, self-confident Catholic middle-classes are clearly determined to claim their place in the post-Good Friday sun.
But behind the pro-Agreement rhetoric of northern nationalism, a battle looms next month between the SDLP - the architests of the Agreement - and Sinn Féin for the nationalist vote. Mark Durkan was clearly stung last week by his party's rather pointed exclusion from the Downing Street talks. To John Hume's heirs it must seem cruel that a party which provided the template of the Agreement and two Deputy First Ministers should be treated in such a cavalier fashion by the two Prime Ministers.
Sinn Féin is keenly aware of the media focus it has enjoyed in recent years as events have repeatedly turned on the on-off dialogue between Trimble and Adams. Sinn Féin, scooping up an imprerssionable young vote, stole a march on the SDLP in the 2001 Westminster poll and now hopes to emerge as the unquestioned voice of northern nationalism. It hopes that its claim to be the 'only all Ireland party' will help it on its way.
On the Unionist side, most of Mr Trimble's difficulties since 1998 have stemmed from the endemic divisions and fears of Unionists over the implications of the agreement.
The 71% pro-agreement vote in the May 1998 referendum included the solid, comfortable Unionist middle classes of North Down – the 'Clandeboye golfers' or 'have yachts' as they has been dubbed. Yet, as Mr Paisley calculated, this progressive element failed to turn out for Trimble in the subsequent assembly election. This left the UUP leader in an invidious position in the Assembly and dependent on PUP – and later Alliance Party – support.
Unionism is now split wide open, making it even more imperative that the 'have yachts' rally to Trimble to offset the expected strong DUP showing. Messrs Paisley and Robinson can be relied on to stoke ancestral fears with a slogan comparable to the 1974 one: 'Dublin is only a Sunningdale Away'.
If the November election returns an assembly dominated by Sinn Féin and a DUP-Donaldson unionist alliance, it is almost impossible to see a working executive emerging from the morass.
The inevitable result will be a final suspension and a growing conviction among nationalists and both governments that Unionism is incapable of endorsing an inclusive future for all in the North. Such a conclusion may well diminish the ability of Unionism to shape the future in the North and on this island.
