Another of Trimble's ultimatums. Another example of the sort of mentality he exhibits every time he pulls down the executive or threatens to do so. 'If I don't get exactly what I want I'm taking the ball and going home.' So he gave General de Chastelain and his commission and the IRA a week to comply with his demands. Demands which require them to breach the agreed procedures, procedures agreed by him too, don't forget, laid down in the decommissioning process of the Good Friday Agreement. But, hey, so what? If David Trimble wants it, then what do agreed processes mean, even ones agreed by him?
The problem is that after his rejection of the IICD report Trimble now has to have greater 'transparency', as he calls it, about decommissioning because his petulant statement exposed his serious shortcomings as a negotiator. He couldn't blame the IRA openly because clearly he didn't negotiate the details of any transparent decommissioning. Now, if it was so essential to him, why didn't he? Did he think because Martin McGuinness said on radio a fortnight ago he believed there could be more openness about putting weapons beyond use, that that was enough? As Sam Goldwyn used to say, 'A verbal contract ain't worth the paper it's written on.'
Isn't it amazing that Trimble couldn't come to the podium last night (Tuesday) and say the IRA welshed on an agreement about how decommissioning would happen? The reason he couldn't is because he obviously never went into detail with republicans of how it would happen. Amazing.
As a result, Trimble has left himself open to ridicule from the DUP and his own dissidents. He just has to get greater transparency now because without it he faces into an election weaker than he was before he aborted the deal with Sinn Féin. His opponents will accuse him of being conned and gulled and will point correctly to the fact that he didn't copper fasten the one part of his deal with republicans most crucial to its acceptance by doubting unionist voters. Even if the decommissioning crisis is satisfactorily resolved Trimble will still be open to those criticisms.
Let's look beyond last night's kerfuffle though. Let's look at the strategic significance of the deal that nearly came off before 5.30pm yesterday. The fact that there was a deal, and there was, and in truth still is, because despite Trimble's electoral necessities on weapons surrender, all the points of principle had been agreed: the really important stuff on an inclusive executive, unionists operating all-Ireland bodies, the possibility of devolving policing and justice powers and so on; the fact that these were all resolved is of incalculable strategic significance.
The Good Friday Agreement was essentially between the UUP and the SDLP. At no stage in the negotiations did the UUP engage with Sinn Féin. They didn't even speak to any SF person about the issues. Sinn Féin themselves came late to the talks being excluded from the initial stages until their cease-fire was renewed in July 1997. The fact is that until the UUP made a deal with SF that satisfied them there would be no smooth running administration in the north. The Good Friday Agreement the UUP signed up to did not in their minds include SF. They spent ages trying to devise ways to exclude them or neutralise them
The deal which should have run on rails yesterday remains of unique importance not merely because it was between the UUP and SF, but because they cooked it up among themselves, unlike the GFA which was largely drafted by officials from the Irish and British governments and signed under enormous time pressure from the two governments and President Clinton. The set of agreements which was to be consummated yesterday was freely entered into by both parties after more than a dozen face to face meetings between Trimble and Adams.
There has never been an accommodation like it between unionists and republicans. The importance of the deal is twofold. First, no point of political principle remains to be dealt with. Secondly, since that is so, the deal will survive and be reactivated. Today there's a lot of rage and frustration and humiliation on both sides but for once it can be said they don't have to go back to the drawing board. The blueprint drawn up together is there. What needs to be realised is that transforming the blueprint into a working vehicle is essential for the UUP. After yesterday's debacle, if SF and the UUP don't get it up and running Trimble is finished and the UUP will split. SF will remain united but will have no unionist partner. If SF want a unionist partner they'll have to come up with something to save Dave.
It wouldn't be the first time.
