The prospects of an early restoration of devolved government in Northern Ireland appear to be receding, with suggestions last night that the meeting of the Ulster Unionist Party's ruling council scheduled for this Wednesday could even be cancelled.
Barring unexpected developments, there may well be no consensus between the main pro-Good Friday Agreement parties in advance of the November 26 assembly elections.
Further negotiations will undoubtedly follow after the results are declared, regardless of what permutations they throw up, but the indications are that this process could yet stretch well into the new year.
Given that we have already had direct rule for over a year, a delay of a further few months would be tolerable if an appropriate outcome could eventually be reached. However, nothing of substance can be expected to change unless the key differences of opinion over the decommissioning issue can be resolved.
It should be acknowledged on all sides that republicans have already gone further in this context than most observers, even including those in the unionist camp, would initially have predicted. Three separate acts of decomm-issioning have taken place, with the most recent, according to General John de Chastelain, being particularly significant in its scale.
Republican leaders have had to display consid-erable courage to reach this stage, especially as the main loyalist organisations have so far retained their entire arsenals and have shown no signs of making a reciprocal gesture.
The sense of frustration in republican circles that their efforts have not yet been enough to win unionist approval for the return of a power-sharing administration at Stormont is fully understandable.
Unfortunately, the political reality is that while nationalists of all shades believe that IRA decommissioning has reached an advanced level, most unionists remain to be convinced.
As long as General de Chastelain is restricted to very limited general comments about the events he has witnessed, the stalemate is set to continue. Although the general is following his formal instructions to the letter, the difficulties this has caused for David Trimble must also be fully accepted.
As matters stand, Mr Trimble is effectively being asked to go before an increasingly sceptical unionist electorate and say; "I would love to give you the full details about the decommissioning which has taken place, but I have to respect the legal right of the IRA to invoke a confidentiality clause."
This would be a recipe for disaster at the polls, and it can hardly be a surprise that Mr Trimble is seeking further movement before reviewing his position.
Republicans need to analyse the background to all this in a calm and logical way before deciding how to respond. They may feel that they have been pushed into a corner, but they must also consider how a movement which has now committed itself to totally peaceful means can still justify stockpiling huge quantities of illegal weaponry.
There is also a clear danger that, without an injection of transparency, republicans will not be given the full credit, both in Ireland and on the world stage, for the unprecedented initiative they are undertaking.
If General de Chastelain could be authorised to provide a detailed list of the arms he can personally guarantee were put beyond use, using straightforward, non-technical terms, the situation would be transformed.
It goes without saying that, if the general is allowed to take this step, all the main parties should be fully consulted before his statement is made public.
There are major sensitivities on all sides, but a solution which would facilitate the early return of devolution remains achievable.
