Late last Tuesday evening Gerry Adams, flanked by Sinn Féin assembly candidates in Hillsborough Castle's Throne Room, asked in a forlorn tone who were the happiest men as a result of the day's debacle. He answered his own question: Ian Paisley and Jeffrey Donaldson, "happy campers," he said.
No doubt they were delighted that whatever way they looked at it David Trimble had made an ass of himself. He hadn't nailed down the detail of weapons surrender and when he didn't get what he expected he bottled out. He had exposed himself as at best a naive, and at worst, an incompetent negotiator. His deal was off and weeks of face-to-face talks with the SF leaders had proved fruitless. Now he had nothing to present to the voters and the DUP could make mincemeat of him. Quickly a trio of his pro-agreement candidates jumped ship including former Belfast lord mayor Bob Stoker who was due to run in west Belfast. It all looked pretty black for the UUP.
Well maybe. Perhaps there's another way of looking at it. Perhaps last Tuesday's collapse, followed by a remarkable absence of acrimony on either side, may just produce a win-win scenario for both SF and the UUP as both Irish and British governments intended.
Let's look at SF first. Despite their protestations about being left at the altar in their good suits they scored a notable political and PR victory. For a long time now they have wanted an election so badly they could taste it. The overture to Tuesday's now infamous choreography was the announcement of an election shortly after 7am. That triggered the series of republican speeches and statements pre-arranged and approved by Dublin, London and Trimble. The concreting in of a huge IRA arms cache had already taken place during the night. Then Trimble reneged on the deal.
Electorally it couldn't have been better for Sinn Féin. As far as nationalists are concerned SF are the victims of another example of Trimble's duplicity. It's essentially no different from his illegal refusal to nominate SF ministers to the North/South Ministerial Council or his walk-outs from the executive. Republicans did everything they had agreed. Unionists did not. Doesn't matter what unionists think about SF or General de Chastelain or decommissioning. None of them was going to give SF a preference anyway. The way Trimble mishandled the episode was a gift-wrapped electoral boost for SF as the poll last week in the Republic showed. Adams now has the highest satisfaction rating of any Irish political leader.
What about the UUP? How did they come out of the event? Well, not so badly if you look at it from a unionist point of view, as you must. After all, there wouldn't be many more nationalists rushing to vote for Trimble than unionists voting for Adams. There are two elections on November 26. Trimble's able to tell unionist voters that he tried to make a deal with those republicans and was short-changed, but at least he tried. Oh yes, he'll take a lot of stick for being naive and incompetent, but he tried. The DUP didn't.
The DUP have discovered unionist voters don't like being offered nothing. As a result they've come round to talking about renegotiating the agreement which is a long way from destroying it, their original position.
Now of course it's a fantasy as both SF and SDLP and now Tony Blur have all told them, but it's interesting they have to pretend they have some alternative proposal within the context of the agreement. The snag is they won't be able to tell voters what it is, a) because all other parties and both governments would rubbish it, so who to negotiate with? and b) because the DUP themselves know it's unworkable and only an electoral ploy to appear constructive to voters.
It's clear now that the election will not be to an executive but to a review of the agreement. It's equally clear that the UUP and SF already have a deal approved by Dublin and London.
All they need to do is agree on what ribbons to tie it up with. It will be much easier for both SF and the UUP to agree on the ribbons after an election than before.
Both electorates, unionist and nationalist are fully aware of that. They are also aware that there will be no deal with the DUP. When you think about it, a fully-fledged deal last Tuesday might have been open to too much scrutiny by voters before an election, might have been too scary for unionists. The nearly deal might turn out to be a win-win electoral scenario.
No other party has one.
