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We may settle Blair's fate

(Editorial, Irish News)

Tony Blair's visit to Berlin at the weekend may have given him a temporary break from his domestic troubles but he had little opportunity to relax.

His meeting with his counterparts from France and Germany, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroder, served to remind him of the tensions which still exist across Europe over the war in Iraq earlier this year.

The confident public appearances of Mr Chirac and Mr Schroder seemed to confirm the growing belief that their mutual scepticism over the military intervention in Iraq by the US and the UK had proved fully justified.

Mr Blair, by contrast, looked ill at ease as he continues to face huge pressure both at home and abroad over the consequences of his relentlessly pro-American stance.

It is impossible to say whether Iraq was the main cause of Labour's shattering defeat in the Brent East by-election in London last week, but it was certainly one of the factors at play.

There is still every prospect that Labour will both regain Brent East and return to power after the next UK general election but, for probably the first time, the idea that it could do so under a new leader is being seriously discussed.

The eventual outcome of the Hutton Inquiry is only likely to add to the anxiety which has surrounded the British government over recent months and there is no guarantee that Mr Blair will be able to regain his previous air of invincibility.

He will be well aware of Enoch Powell's dictum that all political careers end in failure, and he will also be anxious to avoid the calamities which befell Margaret Thatcher in the closing stages of her term of office.

Many of his backbenchers would prefer a smooth transfer of power to Gordon Brown, although there is scant evidence that Mr Blair is preparing to facilitate them.

Not for the first time, the fortunes of the British prime minister could be closely linked to developments in Northern Ireland.

With optimism rising that an under-standing between nationalists and unionists is back within reach, it can be expected that Mr Blair will step up his personal involvement in the search for progress.

His decision to postpone the scheduled Northern Ireland Assembly poll earlier this year was little short of disastrous and, at a stroke, removed all the pressure which had been pushing republicans towards addressing the policing and de-commissioning issues.

It remains astonishing that a British prime minister could cancel a fixed-date election simply because he did not think the result would suit his purposes.

To make matters worse, there are strong reasons to believe that the balance of power within the assembly would not have shifted anywhere near as dramatically as Mr Blair obviously feared.

However, we are where we are, and the opportunity to restore the devolved structures at Stormont remains achievable.

If republicans produce the final proof that their campaign of violence is consigned to the history books, and unionists can offer firm guarantees that further suspensions will be avoided, then all sections of the community can look to a brighter future.

Mr Blair has a crucial role to play in this process and, in doing so, he may well dictate his own destiny in Downing Street.

September 23, 2003
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This article appeared first in the September 22, 2003 edition of the Irish News.


This article appears thanks to the Irish News. Subscribe to the Irish News



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