The SDLP begins its annual party conference in Belfast tomorrow (Saturday) weakened by the assembly election results and facing an election to the European parliament this June without its figurehead John Hume. Political commentator
The historian Professor Ronan Fanning has observed that when nationalism is the issue dominating political discourse the more extreme nationalist party almost always wins in the end. That has certainly been true in Ireland and it's an observation that bodes ill for the SDLP.
It does not mean that the SDLP will necessarily disappear. On the contrary, there will always be a niche for a party like the SDLP because there are thousands of voters who would never vote Sinn Féin. That's the point though; a niche, not the major party of northern nationalism.
The SDLP's diminished role will take some getting used to after years of being cock of the walk, the darling of Irish governments, the shield of respectability against the depredations of republicanism. How big that role will be and what part the SDLP will play in future northern politics is the challenge for Mark Durkan. That's a party leader's job – no one else's.
Now that Sinn Féin advocates peace, supports the Good Friday Agreement, treads the national stage in the Dail and demands more radical change on policing and justice than the SDLP, the central question Mark Durkan must answer is, what is the SDLP for? So far he has gabbled out a smorgasbord. Let's see whether he can provide an answer in tomorrow's speech.
The omens are not good. His decision to walk away from Europe is a major strategic error. True, if he fought and lost he'd have to resign. Turning his back on Europe wins him a year's grace. He'll have to face Mitchell McLaughlin in Foyle in next year's Westminster election. If he loses that he'll have to resign. What then for the SDLP?
The European election is an opportunity passed up. We are told that seven candidates have put themselves forward. No doubt tomorrow you'll hear that that's evidence of strength in depth. Far from it: it's evidence of weakness and disarray. It means that apart from Durkan no one else in the SDLP stands out. Instead there's a melee of no-hopers, second-raters and unknowns.
Suppose one of them beats Bairbre de Brun. Where does that leave Durkan? Someone else will be the senior elected figure in the SDLP leaving Durkan the only main party leader without operating electoral office, a member merely of a mothballed regional assembly. In that capacity he reinforces the SDLP's reduced circumstances. Does that mean he presumes no one can beat de Brun?
Tomorrow Durkan faces a difficult task. He must rally party members by offering a vision, and realistic short and long-term goals. The snag is that means recognising reality, the truth that the SDLP must cut its coat to suit its cloth.
It's a very tricky job for a political leader to tell his party 'If we're not able to do what we want, we'll do what we can.' He's going to have to admit that in large parts of Belfast, Tyrone, Derry and Fermanagh the SDLP has had few or no members for years, that the figureheads who fronted for the party in most areas are gone, leaving nothing behind them.
In many ways the SDLP today is Cumann na nGaedheal in 1932, suddenly shoved out of the way faced by a six-year-old Fianna Fail. Like Cumann na nGaedheal and its modernised version Fine Gael, the SDLP faces a mass party, Sinn Féin, with a collective leadership just like Fianna Fail from the 1930s to the 1960s. Like Fine Gael the SDLP will have to accept that it will never again rule the roost.
Like Fine Gael in the Republic's last election, if the SDLP does not quickly find a sharply defined purpose the voters will punish them.
Since their defeat in the 2001 British election the SDLP have been thrashing around looking for a position. Some conclusions are clear.
They should stop attacking Sinn Féin publicly and in letters to this paper signed with cowardly noms de plume and they should ignore the Alliance party. Both those tactics show how mired in the past the SDLP is.
First, attacking Sinn Féin attacks the majority of nationalist voters. Smart? Second, it only gives SF a chance to reply in detail. Third, the SDLP thereby keeps SF in the public eye. As for throwing ink at the dead sheep that is the Alliance party, well, really: three% of the vote, 227 votes in Foyle, 166 in Mid Ulster? Get real.
Develop a distinctive SDLP policy for the core middle-class voters, stop giving interviews about other parties' policies and stop aping the real republican party. Voters will only vote for parties which have a clear, credible position. The SDLP needs one tomorrow appropriate for the size of its boots.
