The IRA has already decided its future. That is the inevitable conclusion to be drawn from its current campaign of image transformation. While Ian Paisley and Bertie Ahern debate the semantics of disbandment versus standing down, the organisation has already begun to soften its image, so that its transformation from active to passive will be internally painless and externally acclaimed.
Evidence that the long march back to Stormont has already begun comes from the unusual haste with which political embarrassments are being put to rest. Gareth O'Connor's body was located in Newry Canal with an uncanny precision, which could only have been inspired by those who put it there.
The British and Irish governments are hiring a forensic expert to find other missing IRA victims. He will apparently be so skilled that Gerry Adams is confident that all the bodies will be found.
In Derry the IRA admitted after 30 years that it had killed 14-year-old Kathleen Feeney – a confession which would have been more difficult following the appointment of a Sinn Féin member as deputy first minister.
But the IRA is not only remodelling its product – it is also changing its logo.
Last Sunday it held its annual parade to Wolfe Tone's grave in Bodenstown, Co Kildare. The event has been traditionally led by a colour party wearing black berets and black or khaki jumpers.
But this year was different. Gone were the paramilitary trappings and in their place a colour party wore green blazers. It could have been a parade led by tennis umpires at Wimbledon.
Whether they were republicans or guests, the image they gave the commemoration was similar to that of US war veterans on parade – or members of the Royal British Legion marching down Whitehall on Remembrance Sunday.
This marks the emergence of the new IRA – the paramilitary group which likes to say 'yes'. It will be an organisation where old soldiers will never die – they will just undergo a rebranding of their market image.
So not only is the war over and won, the Provisional IRA is over too. For its successful transformation from paramilitary to para-political it must pursue three inter-linked strands of spin – claim continuity of structure; reinforce its assertion of victory and, to justify its victory claim, it must then rewrite Irish history.
Structural continuity is not new. A year ago, for example, 20 aging men assembled in a Dublin hotel to commemorate the IRA raid on Armagh barracks in June 1954 when 250 rifles, 37 Sten guns and nine Bren guns were stolen in broad daylight. They assembled at 3pm – the same time as the raid in which 18 British soldiers were quietly tied up and not a shot was fired.
Thus the concept of an old comrades' association already exists and, more significantly, it does not depend on disbanding the organisation or giving up its weapons. Previous generations of republicans simply recognised defeat and made way for the next generation.
By saying that there can never be an armed republican struggle again in Ireland, the Provisional IRA has abandoned that tradition – hence its popularity in Dublin and London. In the advertising genre of "I can't believe it's not butter" critics might regard this as a case of "I can't believe it's not the SDLP".
Assuming that it was fighting for a 32-county, socialist republic, claims of a PIRA victory are also hard to justify. To date there are no 32-county structures; socialism seems to have been squeezed out somewhere between Downing Street and the White House and, since the Good Friday Agreement, Ireland is permanently partitioned by consent. None out of three sounds suspiciously like defeat.
To justify its victory claim it must now rewrite its history and suggest that its 30-year struggle was not for Irish unity and independence but for the Good Friday Agreement – implausible but possible. But because of its claimed genetic links back through 1916 to Wolfe Tone, it must also claim that every republican since then also fought for the agreement – even more implausible but read the speeches.
The PIRA's actions represent a perfectly legitimate political tactic which will have overwhelming support in Ireland and abroad. It will bring political power and, in many eyes, that will be sufficient justification for its actions. What it will do with that power is another matter.
In the meantime its decision has been made. In justifying its future, the PIRA must of necessity also rewrite Ireland's past.
Irish history will never be the same.
