The future for the Ulster Unionist Party looks no brighter now that its new leader has been elected.
He immediately signalled that he intends to repeat exactly the same mistakes as his predecessor. He plans to engage in the political equivalent of a race to the bottom which only the DUP can win.
No wonder the man he narrowly beat instantly attacked the commitment not to share power with Sinn Féin before a new assembly election as 'daft'. The commitment closed off one of the few remaining points of difference from the DUP.
Furthermore, Alan McFarland – who came within 34 votes of Sir Reg Empey's total – realises that in a future assembly election, the DUP will slaughter the UUP. The UUP's only slim chance of staying in the running for ministers' jobs lies in getting this assembly up again.
Of course Empey knows that without the DUP there can be no executive elected anyway, since they control consent on the unionist side and that the DUP and SF will insist on a new election to ratify any deal they cut next year. Nevertheless, it was the wrong signal.
Sir Reg announced that he wants to attract back the fed-up UUP voters who came out in numbers in the 1998 referendum in the belief that the Good Friday Agreement heralded a new, confident, accommodating unionism prepared to treat nationalists on equal terms.
When they saw and heard Trimble in action in the 1998 assembly elections they went home again. They haven't voted since.
They are the elusive 'garden centre unionists' who see no point in wasting their time supporting a party which pays lip service to the agreement but did all in its power to make it unworkable and made it as difficult as possible for Sinn Féin to manage the transformation of its military wing.
Alan McFarland, who lives among these unionists, knows Empey's initial statements have ensured that they will continue to spend their spare time in garden centres. There's certainly no future for them in the tired old politics the UUP's leader is peddling.
To cap his pronouncement on the assembly he then proceeded to declare that there can be no permanent settlement in the north until the parades issue is resolved.
It used to be decommissioning, then the RUC, then IRA disbandment, now parades, God help us.
Orange parades, the silver bullet to save the UUP – exactly. Unionists in north Down garden centres speak of little else.
Have a titter of wit Reg. The voters you want watch the burning vehicles caused by parades being pushed through Catholic districts on CNN and Sky in Marbella and Paphos and Lanzarote.
They're ashamed of the Orange Order. The scenes on TV make it indefensible to admit being a unionist in polite society.
Even more elementary, the people swaggering along behind UDA and UVF bands don't vote UUP. They turfed out UUP councillors from the Shankill in the May elections.
What good did Michael McGimpsey's support for the multi-culturalists of Donegall Pass and Sandy Row do him? It was great he got stuffed in May. Nobody deserved it more.
The sad aspect of this missed opportunity is that Sir Reg Empey is genuinely not sectarian.
At one time in the 1980s he had the courage as Lord Mayor to defy the neanderthals in the City Hall and address a meeting Charlie Haughey was invited to in Belfast. He knew that's what unionist business people wanted. It didn't do him a bit of harm politically.
He was more pro-agreement than Trimble and is more closely associated with its detailed negotiations than any other unionist. That's what he got his knighthood for.
He knows there is no alternative to sharing power with SF. So what's the point in sounding as if there is? Does he really think any voter will believe he's more extreme than Ian Paisley?
More importantly, does he really believe any of the unionist voters whose support he needs want him to sound more extreme than Paisley?
What Sir Reg needs to do is examine the election figures. They show not that unionist voters switched from the UUP to the DUP since 2001 but that UUP voters were exasperated by Trimble's line and didn't vote for anyone.
