Time and tide they say, waits for no-one. However, not everyone understands it first time. Legend has it that the Danish King of England, King Canute took his throne down to the sea and commanded the tide to go back with very poor results.
And so it is that ideas have their time too. As the collective expectations of a community move on, no amount of wishing can hold that movement back. Here in the north of Ireland, politics lurch ever onwards and we find ourselves on the verge of yet another historic IRA statement.
All the indicators point to another less-than-clear message from P O'Neill and we are once again to be left to 'read between the lines'. As desperate as the DUP are to regain the reins of power at Stormont, it is likely they will remain unmoved by the 'grudge and fudge' approach of the Provisional movement.
Having watched (and helped) the Ulster Unionist Party founder on the rocks of compromise, they are unlikely to want to commit to a course charted by Bluebeard Adams. But even a backwater like Northern Ireland has its own tide and like Canute, the DUP is powerless to control it.
The real problem for the DUP, however, is that they told the electorate that they could. They claimed their throne on a promise that they had powers no one else had; that they could command the tide to retreat and turn back time. They knew that even with a full IRA ceasefire there are still those in their ranks who would not have a catholic driving the cranes at Harland and Wolff – let alone countenance a Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister. The inescapable outcome, ie an inclusive powersharing deal with an all-Ireland dimension and the full implementation of the Patten proposals has not yet reached the residents of Newbuildings or the brethren of the Ravenhill Road Temple.
Yet time and tide are not going to wait for the Provisional movement either. The Sinn Féin mandate may be untouched by the antics of their backroom colleagues but they too know that democratic Ireland has moved on. Gerry and the Peacemakers may be starting to appreciate the lean years of the SDLP leadership who sacrificed jobs and in some cases families as one failed political intitiative followed another for nearly twenty years.
An internal debate has begun within the IRA membership as to when and how they should fade into the mist.
What are we waiting for? They had no mandate for a war – so for how long are we to indulge their consultation process?
Both the British and Irish governments have provided enough 'carrots' to encourage movement with the Provisionals and indeed all former paramilitary organisations – maybe it's time to bring out the stick.
Mr Blair is wrong to say there are only two ways forward – one with Sinn Féin and one without Sinn Féin.
Of course, it is preferable to move with everyone on board but it is not essential. The process has been compromised from the start. The DUP were able to avail of the benefits of ministerial patronage and power under the auspices of the Good Friday Agreement while remaining outside of the executive.
It should never have been allowed to happen but it was. Prisoner releases, although necessary were too much of a one way street when it came to political trade offs. Either way for good or bad – things moved on albeit imperfectly. Things can move on again – even if it not to everyone's satisfaction.
We didn't wait for the Provisionals to move on policing and huge progress has been made. Indeed, as the board is set to be reconstituted, a strong and compelling argument for a nationalist chairman is emerging.
As the Provisional movement struggles to find a back door to creep through, the process has moved on to the point where policing has become the one area of real powersharing here and almost approaches 'normality'.
When Canute took his throne to the water's edge and failed to stop the tide, he did it to teach his courtiers and supporters a lesson. He wanted to show them that there were limits to his power. Whether the leader of either extreme here has the courage to do the same remains to be seen, but whether they do or not, the water is lapping at their feet.
Tom Kelly is chief executive of Stakeholder Communications and can be contacted via Stakeholdergroup.com.
