Maybe the loyalists have a legitimate grievance. That is the one conclusion which many observers of current and planned loyalist protests have so far avoided.
While picketing cemeteries and attempting to force Orange parades through contentious areas cannot be defended, there is a difference between expressing a grievance in an inappropriate manner and not having a grievance. It is a difference which, if it remains unrecognised, may well generate more violence and delay political progress. At worst, it could detain unionist leaders as political prisoners of their own people for some time to come.
So what is their grievance?
They have not expressed it very clearly but they appear to believe that Catholics have fared better than Protestants under the Good Friday Agreement. As a result they fear that new political systems and structures here will inevitably disadvantage them in social, economic and what they call cultural terms.
The origins of this attitude lie to some extent in how the IRA handled the Good Friday Agreement. It used the ceasefire period to expand its financial fortune and extend its political power base, while carrying on secret negotiations with the British. It is a view which is understood, and possibly even shared, by some nationalists.
In conditioning the republican constituency to accept the new political landscape republican leaders forgot that loyalists were listening – or did they?
Thus the language and tactics used to prevent an IRA split caused an even deeper split in wider society. In the sectarian context of the Good Friday Agreement, claimed Catholic gains became perceived Protestant losses.
This does not mean that this is all the fault of the IRA but its incremental erosion of the spirit of the agreement severely tried the patience of the British, Irish and US governments. More significantly, it broke the fragile trust which the Protestant working class had placed in the agreement. While instinct had taught loyalists not to trust the Provos, they were particularly unnerved to find that they could no longer rely on the British government, their traditional source of economic, political and even military support.
Loyalists who read the Bible will presumably see similarities in the story of the prodigal son – while republicans set out to destroy the state, loyalists fought to defend it. The head of that state, Tony Blair, now welcomes republicans into his home because of their belated recognition that the state should not be destroyed. Despite their Christian beliefs, loyalists feel aggrieved that both Tony Blair and God say that this is all fair and reasonable.
Observe the sons of Ulster rioting while the prodigal sons march towards political power.
Thus the loyalist grievance is one of perceived betrayal by the British. Is it real? It is to them. They have yet to realise that their unconditional loyalty over the years was repaid with nothing more than occasional visits from assorted royals, who waved at the Protestant working class in the streets and allowed the middle class to shake their hands and curtsy with due deference at Hillsborough.
It is too easy to say that loyalists have been let down by their leaders. One leader, David Trimble, was so badly let down by the British that unionist leaders no longer move too far ahead of the unionist people. Thus they are leaving the problem for the British to handle.
That is why the DUP were in Downing Street yesterday (Thursday).
Republicans were there to be told to hang back for a while. British policy will now rely on historical precedent.
Just as they secured the Act of Union in 1801 with bribery, political patronage and contrived symbolic gestures, the British will now set out to finally secure the Good Friday Agreement in a similar manner.
While unionist politicians will not personally make a financial gain, their path to government will be eased by the £100 millions originally mooted last year.
Patronage will be offered in the form of a number of unionist peerages in the House of Lords.
The loyalist working class will be fed their staple diet of additional royal visits and senior civil servants will be tasked with inventing new cultural comfort zones for them.
Condemnation of loyalist protest violence will not end it. Understanding it might – which is why the British government yesterday set out to understand it. Their aim will not be to condemn the Love Ulster rally on October 29 but to give loyalists something to celebrate at it.
Our future political progress may well hinge on their getting it right.
