Sir Reg Empey apparently thinks he can avoid the fate of his predecessor by repeating the very first and very worst mistake of his predecessor. That mistake is siding with the Orange Order and this week Sir Reg has shunted the UUP up the last siding before the end of the line.
David Trimble had an excuse for equivocating over Orange Order threats and the loyalist violence that invariably follows. He exploited the banning of the 1995 Drumcree parade to get himself elected party leader then felt unable to spurn the sash that had put him in office. He supported further Drumcree protests to stop Ian Paisley stealing his thunder, thereby enabling Ian Paisley to make a lightning exit. Even when the battle was clearly lost Trimble didn't abandon the field for fear of distant shouts of "Traitor!" from the strategically-withdrawn ranks of the DUP.
Eventually the Orangemen, who are never satisfied, turned their frustrations on the Ulster Unionists while Ian Paisley moved on to better tension-raising sham fights.
So the party lost an election and David Trimble lost the leadership to be replaced by Sir Reg Empey – who immediately set about recreating the Drumcree scenario in every respect bar its pleasing rural setting.
But what is Sir Reg's excuse for equivocating over Orange Order violence? He does not owe his office to the brethren and he has the benefit of hindsight in a situation that is perfectly predictable anyway. The argument over a 100-yard diversion on the Springfield Road is as dumb and as doomed as the Garvaghy Road dispute that preceded it. There is nothing at stake on a par with the attendant mayhem. There is no practical political programme that can satisfy the sort of disaffected idiots who attack the army in support of the RIR or attack the police in tribute to the RUC. There is no electoral advantage to be gained by courting people who will always vote DUP come hell or high water. Regardless of the morality of Sir Reg Empey's position – which is disgraceful – his strategy simply makes no sense. He has implicated the Ulster Unionists in a fight over nothing in which the UVF and the UDA are guaranteed to run amok, the Orange Order is guaranteed to disgrace itself and the argument is guaranteed to be lost.
In every similar crisis before the DUP has demanded a united front, flirted with loyalism just enough to tip the wink to sympathisers then backed off just in time to strand everyone else in the long grass. Why, as he stands side-by-side with Ian Paisley before the electorate, does Sir Reg Empey think this time will be any different? Furthermore, what difference can the electorate now hope to discern between the main unionist parties?
The DUP line is that when republicans riot they get what they want, so if loyalists riot then they'll get what they want. The UUP line is that when republicans riot they get what they want so if loyalists don't get what they want then they'll riot. The difference between these positions is, as Ian Paisley himself might say, somewhat Jesuitical. Every unionist, left aghast by this week's chaos, will find such hair-splitting indistinguishable from two bald men fighting over a comb – and in the long run these are the only unionists that offer the UUP any future.
So why won't the UUP offer them a future?
Is Sir Reg so afraid of that distant shout of "Traitor!" that he can't stand four-square behind the rule of British law? Does he really believe that the vast majority of unionists are so upset by the Parades Commission that they want anarchy on the streets and cynical ambivalence from their leaders? If so, then Sir Reg has based his judgment on precious little evidence.
There were more people waving union flags at Proms in the Park in Belfast last Saturday night than waving guns at the police. There were more people at Windsor Park last Wednesday night determined to make Northern Ireland proud than all the people determined to shame it.
Who do these unionists vote for now?
Why should they vote at all?
And why should other unionists vote for Ian Paisley's bag-boy when they can vote for the man himself?
In less than three months Sir Reg Empey has destroyed his credibility.
If he remains at the helm much longer, his astonishing incompetence will destroy the Ulster Unionist Party itself.
