Does the Northern peace process leave you a little jaded these days? Don't
feel guilty if you harbour such sentiments from across the Border. Everyone
up here is equally disillusioned. Even the staunchest supporters of the
Belfast Agreement have grown weary of the endless cycle of crises and crux
negotiations.
As the Taoiseach, Mr Blair, and the parties continue their eleventh-hour
discussions, most people have simply switched off. In pubs, taxi depots, and
cafes, in-depth analysis focuses on the race for the English Premiership,
not that for the peace deal. The strategies of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene
Wenger arouse much more interest than those of Gerry Adams and David
Trimble.
Apart from the great and the good, nobody really misses the Assembly and the
Executive. In theory, nationalists are keener to have the institutions
restored. But in practice, it makes little difference to life in the
Bogside or Ballymurphy whether it's David Trimble and his team administering
services or Paul Murphy and his. There wasn't a noticeable improvement or
deterioration in hospitals, schools and the like under devolution. Sammy and
Sinead didn't bring home any more in their wage packet.
Indifference to the current talks is prevalent in both communities but there
are differences. In London and Washington, the Provisional IRA is blamed for
the impasse, but not among Northern nationalists. The SDLP will be on dodgy
ground if it continues pointing the finger at the Provos for not living up
to their responsibilities. For ordinary Catholics, unionists are solely at
fault.
From the leafy suburbs of south Belfast to the grittier streets of the Short
Strand, nationalists dismiss demands for further IRA statements and
decommissioning as a smokescreen. They say the silence of republican guns
should be enough. They have never really warmed to David Trimble and they
don't believe he or his party are committed to the peace process.
While both governments demand more from the IRA, there is probably nothing
the Provos could now do that would satisfy most ordinary unionists. Alleged
IRA activities in Colombia, Castlereagh and Stormont have annihilated trust.
Further decommissioning will not convince because unionists will say the
Provos can easily buy more weapons. IRA words are deemed as valuable as
Iraq's currency. When IRA members continue gathering intelligence, seasoned
observers believe it's just occupational therapy for the rank-and-file. But
when lists of 'targets' are found in republican areas, unionists see a real
threat.
Mr Blair hasn't definitely stated the May 29th Assembly elections will go
ahead. If they do, the DUP will make massive gains and could overtake the
Ulster Unionists. Sinn Féin should undoubtedly pull even further ahead of
the SDLP and firmly establish its dominance within nationalism. Since the
IRA ceasefire and Sinn Féin's gradual movement away from traditional
republicanism, there has been a 'greening' of moderate elements in the
Catholic community. "You can be as nationalist as you like now and nobody
says you're a Provo," remarked one Catholic graduate.
The IRA leadership's refusal so far to give Messrs Blair and Trimble what
they need is a temporary blip. The Provos have travelled too far down the
constitutional road to turn back. The top brass have no intention of
swapping their smart suits for combat gear. The IRA leadership is most
likely refusing to budge because it sees no logic in doing so before an
election. Major movement on decommissioning and stating the war is over,
makes no sense if Mr Trimble won't be the leading voice of unionism post-May
29th. A victorious DUP would demand a renegotiation of the Agreement and
what would the IRA have left to bargain with then?
There is also considerable discontent within IRA grassroots, particularly in
Tyrone and Fermanagh. Republican sources say that at one meeting, Martin
McGuinness was told if Sinn Féin signed up to the new Police Service of
Northern Ireland, he needn't come back. Gerry Adams was sporting an Easter
lily a fortnight before Easter - a sure sign the republican base needs
reassurance.
While last week's publication of the Stevens' report, which found widespread
collusion between elements of the security forces and loyalist
paramilitaries, provides valuable propaganda for Sinn Féin, it also
strengthens those within republicanism who argue that the police force is
irreformable and nationalists should never support it.
Time is rapidly running out for a deal to rescue the Agreement. Sinn Féin
says the two governments should publish their blueprint for restoring
devolution. But the Provisional IRA refuses to allow anyone - including its
own members - to see its statement to the governments. Isn't it time all
parties in this process engaged in more transparency and openness? Maybe
that would give us something substantial to analyse in the pub.
