Peter Hain has said that November 24 is an absolute deadline, and that either the Stormont Assembly forms
a power sharing government by that date or it closes
down. Does he accept he might thus be inviting the Rev
Ian Paisley to preside over the final death of the
Belfast Agreement?
"No, what we're saying is the process can't continue
and go on being an end in itself. I don't think the
public in Northern Ireland will stand for this, and
the Good Friday Agreement remains the only show in
town. I think there'll have to be some legislative
amendment to it – in terms of Strands One to Three, in
the sort of territory there was in the comprehensive
proposals of 2004 – for the DUP to take their seats in
a power sharing executive. But there's no other show,
and if anybody thought they could bring the curtain
down in the interests of burying the Good Friday
Agreement they couldn't be more wrong."
But can that be right? Mr Hain will recognise the
proposition isn't mine but that of Mark Durkan. The
SDLP leader says not the least of the risks in this
British/Irish initiative is that if Paisley sits
tight, for whatever reason, that's the end of the
Assembly and the end of the central piece of the
Agreement?
"The alternative is dragging this on year after year
with the process becoming an end in itself, going on
and on and on, and Assembly members not doing the jobs
for which they were elected, drawing salaries and
allowances, which the public won't stand for. The
problem I think Assembly members have got themselves
into it is that they're not having an argument with me
about this deadline, they're having an argument with
their voters."
He says it can't go on and on. But the DUP don't
believe him. If Dr Paisley or Peter Robinson raise
themselves in November and declare 'great progress
made, not there yet, but getting there' – they don't
believe that Tony Blair in those circumstances would
close it all down?
Mr Hain insists: "They couldn't be more wrong. Whether
it's the DUP or the SDLP, they could not be more
wrong. At midnight on 24 November the curtain comes
down, the Assembly's put on ice, the salaries will
stop. In the late summer – if they don't think we're
going to get an agreement, or they're not willing, or
don't have confidence we can reach an agreement – I'll
be advising Assembly Members them to tell their staff
to find new jobs.
They'll also need to do something
else in the summer and advise the landlords of their
advice centres that they're not going to be able to
pay the rent. I don't say that as a threat, because
they themselves will bring the curtain down, not me,
and the public won't stand for millions and millions
of pounds going to waste in this fashion."
Then comes an interesting caveat: "If they go to one
minute past midnight in the expectation that we're
going to blink, well we won't blink first. Now, if
they then decide voluntarily to go on the dole, sack
their staff, close down their advice centres, and then
to come back to me after one month, two months, three
months.. six months and say 'we think we got it wrong,
now we're ready to run it again', well my door's
always open. But I'm not going to be chasing after
them."
Okay. But a strange thought occurs to me. If Mr Hain
is to be taken at face value about the deadline, in an
odd way – and certainly in a way he would never have
intended – this reflects just how far Northern Ireland
actually has come. Because presumably – while he would
like devolution – he's also calculating there will no
political or security crisis if the devolution project
fails? And therefore we've arrived at a point where -
whereas previously devolution was considered an
essential part of ending the conflict – we can now
have peace without it?
Mr Hain concedes: "You may be able to have peace
without it, and I think you will have peace without
it, because, you know, Northern Ireland is as night
and day compared with what it was in past years, even
in April 1998." However, he also argues: "Actually
you'll have a completely artificial situation because
you will not have democracy there. You may have, we
like to think, a very effective group of Direct Rule
ministers who are making the decisions in the public
interest. But we're not accountable, I'm not
accountable to anybody in Northern Ireland, I don't
have any voters who can kick me out."
Notwithstanding what Mr Hain says about a democratic
deficit, doesn't this reinforce the suspicion that Ian
Paisley's got the soft option here, compared to where
David Trimble was in 1998? The Irish constitutional
claim is gone and the IRA's "war" is over. As he says,
Paisley can have peace, albeit imperfect, without
devolution.
For all that Mr Hain talks tough, Direct
Rule is relatively benign and will continue to be.
With nine seats in the Commons, the likelihood of more
electoral success to come, Prime Minister Blair
running out of time and the possibility of a hung
parliament next time – a lot of people in the DUP
might think their prospects rosy enough without the
pain of having Martin McGuinness as Deputy First
Minister?
Mr Hain is determinedly unimpressed by such lack of
conventional political ambition. "It's one thing for
Northern Ireland MPs to enjoy being at Westminster,
but their power is very limited. And actually a lot of
the policies we're implementing, not that they have
that ambition, are fiercely opposed by the DUP in
particular... the seven councils, the reform of
education, the water charges, a long list of things.
I'm not doing these to knock anybody on the nose. I'm
doing these because I strongly believe – and have the
support, I believe, of civil society, including the
business community, the trade unions and the voluntary
sector – to build a world class Northern Ireland, this
is what this agenda's about. But they (the DUP) say
they don't like them. Well it's a profoundly
dissatisfying and unsatisfactory position for
democratically elected politicians to be in, where
they're actually saying 'be my guest, make these
decisions that I don't like'.
Yet, actually, it was the accidental loss of
meaningful local government alongside the suspension
of the Stormont Parliament in 1972 which created what
has long-since been described as Northern Ireland's
democratic deficit? And with the proposal for seven
'Super Councils' Mr Hain might be said to be filling
it. Albeit that they do not like the seven – taken
with proper levels of parliamentary representation,
and their dominance of it, this might be democracy
enough for the DUP?
"But you see that didn't work in Scotland and it
didn't work in Wales," counters Mr Hain: "And you
didn't have the bitter history in either of those two
nations."
Yet it might work for Northern Ireland, and for the
unionists in particular, precisely because the bitter
history creates an aversion to sharing power above a
certain level?
Mr Hain is unconvinced: "I don't think there is, I
think there's a problem of trust and a failure of
leadership, and too much followership and not enough
leadership, by all the parties by the way."
What single act of leadership could Gerry Adams engage
in between now and 24 November ?
"I think Sinn Féin do need to put themselves on the
road, and I think they have started off wearily down
this road, to co-operating with the police. I'm not
saying 'join the policing board tomorrow'. But there
is a commitment they have given, which I'll expect
them to honour, that when we've got Royal Assent for
the Bill devolving policing and justice, that they
then need to take positive moves to call a conference.
They've promised that and I'm sure that they will."
That's the assent for the Bill, not the actual
transfer of powers? "No, until you've got institutions
to devolve to, you can't devolve." And the timetable
for that? "Well it's due to get royal assent by the
summer recess, by the end of July."
Mr Hain says he can't be certain of the timing of any
Sinn Féin Ard Fheis, and declines to speculate as to
whether they might actually be ready to join the Board
and endorse the PSNI in time for a November deal. He
also stresses: "There's a radical difference between
trying to solve problems and difficult issues like
policing, which is what we're doing, and using those
difficult issues to erect a hurdle to
power-sharing.... I agree with what Dermot Ahern said
in The Irish Times on Tuesday (May 9), that there's a danger
here of continually shifting the goalposts." Yet he is
also confident: "Provided nobody's playing games, then
it's in Sinn Féin's interest – since their declared
objective is to get into government with the DUP and
the others – it's in their interest to build trust and
remove an excuse from unionists, and everybody,
because we all want them to cooperate with policing.
It's in their interests to remove that excuse which
could act as a final obstacle."
Finally, again on the subject of leadership, does he
think Ian Paisley wants to end his days as First
Minister? "Well, I think Ian Paisley over his
extraordinary political career has been incredibly
courageous...." Courageous? "Yes, I think he has shown
a lot of courage as an individual. You can agree or
disagree with what he's done and I'm not going to go
into that territory, but I think he's shown a lot of
courage, and I think he would like to see his
political career concluded with peace set in concrete
in Northern Ireland, with democracy flourishing and
with the party that he created leading that new
democracy. So yes I do, I think that's where he wants
to go."
