Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern called-it correctly
yesterday. The people of Northern Ireland have spoken,
and the political path ahead is clear.
There are real grounds for thinking that the Rev Ian
Paisley might actually agree to form a new
power-sharing executive with Sinn Féin by the
stipulated March 26 deadline. For those who like to
hedge, however, key DUP strategists suggest the safer
bet is that 'the Big Man' will certainly be installed
as First Minister by the end of May.
The Irish and British governments, like Sinn Féin,
will protest that March 26 is non-negotiable – that
the DUP either commits to power-sharing by that date
or Plan B, and joint British/Irish "stewardship" of
Northern Ireland, comes into effect. Moreover, Prime
Minister Blair can also argue that Dr Paisley has less
cause now to delay.
The DUP leader's internal critics failed to openly
challenge him during the election, while the
anti-agreement campaign threatened on the party's
right imploded. There are no "unpledged" DUP Assembly
Members waiting to take their seats at Stormont. And
while some of them privately whispered their doubts
about the direction in which Dr Paisley was taking the
party – or, at least, about the speed with which he
was approaching his intended destination – Paisley
prevailed, carried on, and has now won a famous
victory. Are the doubters really going to rain on his
parade?
Against that, the DUP manifesto stipulated the removal
of "terrorist structures" in addition to weapons
decommissioning, and that republican "delivery" of
support for the police and law and order (still
conditional) be "tested and proved over a credible
period." And MPs Nigel Dodds, Gregory Campbell,
William McCrea and David Simpson have made no secret
of their view that the period available between the
election and March 26 is unlikely to suffice.
Dr Paisley and deputy leader Peter Robinson (who has
been long-term the organisational force behind this
now-formidable election winning machine) know that no
amount of testing will ever satisfy some in their
ranks. There will come a point of decision when they
have to disappoint, and probably lose, some of their
hardliners. Before reaching that point, however, they
will want to divide and reduce those currently
coalescing around the strictest interpretation of
party policy. Here the dispositions of Mr Dodds and Mr
Campbell, in particular, will be crucial. Dr Paisley
and Mr Robinson have no intention of losing either
talent, indeed are more likely to think to see both
shine again in ministerial office.
If timing is key to keeping such people aboard, then
the DUP leader will want some further delay. And
despite Peter Hain's protestations to the contrary, Mr
Blair would surely want to oblige – perhaps with a
"shadow" executive settling in over a six or
eight-week period before Stormont finally goes live?
We need expect no hint of it ahead of the coming
fortnight of long days and late nights at Stormont and
inside Number 10, where Sinn Féin like the DUP will
seek to wring further advantage before finally
committing. And, as observed at the outset, it might
not prove necessary. The dynamics within unionism are
further changed by the election outcome. The Ulster
Unionist Party strikes many as just about finished.
Its further collapse under Reg Empey will likely
reinforce the drive for further realignment and one
unionist party – a development which might not even
have to await the post-Paisley-era, given his own
occupation now of the centre-ground. In their
desperation ('though it would seem with little
prospect) once-loyal Trimbleites are suggesting that
Empey should go, so enabling a policy switch that
would see the UUP decline its ministerial office and
go "into opposition".
As of this writing, however, it can be said that the
unionist political class is broadly committed to a new
power-sharing deal. And as things stand, the internal
machinations of the UUP are anyway unlikely to weigh
heavily with Dr Paisley.
Mr Blair will see here compelling reason to get on
with it. But if he has to delay, he would seem to be
taking even less of a risk that at St Andrews last
October, when he granted Dr Paisley his election. For
the strongest assurance emanating from within, and
across, the DUP – as reported in The Irish Times in
January – is that Dr Paisley sees no advantage in
"waiting for Gordon" and wants to conclude the
agreement on Mr Blair's watch.
