by Gary Kent

How the Belfast Agreement was cobbled together will long fascinate future students and historians. It is now difficult to distinguish spin from reality. But two concrete pieces of evidence exist - the controversial Mitchell draft and the final agreement. Close analysis and Unionist sources appear to confirm major Unionist gains in the final days of the negotiations.

Mitchell's draft was produced by the Senator and the two other chairmen, with the apparent agreement of the two governments, at 12.30am on Tuesday 7 April. It was badly received by the Unionists. One source says that there was 'genuine and huge shock and demoralisation' at a document which 'imported Sinn Féin's wish-list' and much of which was new. Unionists were on the verge of quitting the talks. David Trimble (and Alliance leader John Alderdice) requested Tony Blair's intervention. He arrived later that day, although the visit was probably scheduled in advance.

Once he saw the document - for the first time - he agreed that much should be scrapped. A three-way meeting between Trimble, Ahern and Blair started to jettison large swathes of Mitchell. Some changes are relatively small. For instance, Mitchell's preamble mentions "'the failures of the past" which becomes "the tragedies of the past." The first formula echoes the phrase about Northern Ireland being a 'failed entity.' The final section on policing acknowledges the efforts of the RUC "and other public servants." The provision for border polls is loosened so that can be 7 rather than 5 years apart. Ulster-Scots is added to the section on linguistic diversity but action on the Irish language is qualified by the phrase "where appropriate and where people so desire it."

However, the main changes concern north-south co-operation. Mitchell proposed 41 areas of co-operation. These included wide-ranging and economically significant areas such as further and higher education (reduced to teacher qualifications and exchanges), food safety and others (now only accident and emergency services). Five industrial and trade matters - trading standards, public purchasing, supervision of credit unions (remember John Hume's role in establishing these in the 1960s), public purchasing and occupational health and safety - disappear. Joint approaches on EU Fisheries and Agricultural Policy are excluded. Sport co-operation is axed. Mitchell listed 8 implementation bodies covering tourism, environmental protection, EU programmes implementation, transport planning, inland waterways, Irish language promotion, trade promotion and indigenous company development and the arts. The first five had been agreed by the two Governments. None survives.

The final document establishes a transitional period and a 'work programme' by the new North-South Council (which is subject to agreement all round) to identify and agree 6 matters where existing bodies could implement co-operation plus 6 issues which could be covered by agreed all-island implementation bodies. It is made clear there that, while such bodies will have a 'clear operational remit,' they are not free-standing and are accountable to the Dail and the Assembly. Also explicit is that 'the North/South Ministerial Council and the Assembly are mutually interdependent and that one cannot function successfully without the other.'

Unionists made big gains in Strand 2. The SDLP achieved its aim of Cabinet Government. The terrorist-linked groups got firmer commitments on prisoner release. Sinn Féin can highlight the Equality Agenda in the agreement and may get a dedicated Department of Equality. Unionists appear to have won a commitment that the membership of the new Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission will reflect the community balance. The Women's Coalition made gains on women's and victims' rights.

However, by noon of the final day, agreement was held up as Unionists identified about 20 key concerns. 'Trimble was in trouble,' according to a participant. The UUP decided to focus on one issue alone - decommissioning. They had already won a two year time frame for its achievement. But they feared that the agreement was inadequate in preventing terrorist-linked politicians from becoming Ministers and infiltrating and subverting the political system. The result was a letter from Blair.

Much now rides on this letter, which is not legally watertight and may lead to a political bust-up with Dublin in the future. If this were, as Trimble said recently, a 15 round heavyweight fight, the agreement possibly represents the 8th or 9th round. The Framework Documents and Mitchell have both been diluted and vetoes ensure the unionist interest. One source says that they are ahead on points but there are big battles to come. There will be parliamentary battles to ensure that Executive Ministers are rotated so that they do not develop autonomous fiefdoms in a forced coalition government.

Unionists will carefully examine how the RUC is investigated (by what sort of Commission and with what sort of international representation) and then how policing reform is implemented. They want to maintain the RUC's effectiveness as an anti-terrorist force. They will also carefully monitor the release of prisoners (which they persuaded Blair to clarify was on licence and subject to recall) and to ensure that released prisoners don't change their allegiances to off-ceasefire factions and remain at liberty. Much depends on the attitude of the Secretary of State and his/her officials.

But the big battle is over decommissioning - this is short hand for pressurising the IRA to take the sort of action that will convince ordinary voters they have genuinely changed, for ever. Assuming both referendums succeed on 22 May.

May 1998
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Gary Kent is the Westminster Correspondent of the Belfast based Fortnight Magazine. This article first appeared in the Belfast Newsletter on Friday, May 1 and appeared in the May edition of Fortnight.

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