(by Ed Maloney, Sunday Tribune)

Following last week's shake up in the membership of the controversial Parades Commission in the North, nationalists are predicting a major conflict scenario for this year's Drumcree Orange parade in Portadown.

Four new members were appointed by Northern Secretary Mo Mowlam, two Loyalists and two non-nationalist Catholics, while the sole nationalist on the commission, Berna McIvor of the SDLP resigned leaving the body open to the accusation that the British have moved it decidedly in the direction of Unionists.

"There's a simple message from all this", complained one Portadown nationalist leader. "Its that the British are planning to let the Orangeman march on the Garvaghy Road once again".

The source predicted that this year the anti-parade activists would encourage nationalists from all over the North to flood into the Garvaghy Road area to help locals physically block the Orangemen. Until now Portadown activists have refrained from doing this, apparently on the grounds that the time had not been ripe. Now they believe it is.

Such a tactic was used by activists in the lower Ormeau area last year; Sinn Fein for instance urged nationalist in their "thousands" to show solidarity with local people by going to the area. When Orangemen decided to abandon that and other marches the ploy entered nationalist mythology as a potent weapon.

This could be a nightmare scenario for the two governments. With their anticipated settlement still in its infancy in early July the choice would be between a massive, destabilising confrontation between the security forces, notably the RUC, and nationalists or a similar conflict with Orangeism.

The sight of triumphant Orangemen getting their way at the last two Drumcree's created a menacing mood in nationalist communities but the evidence is that in the interests of its peace strategy, the Republican movement went out of its way to prevent a wider conflict.

In 1996, for instance, IRA men visited off-licences in west and north Belfast and ordered them closed to prevent potential teenage rioters drinking. Last year Sinn Fein leaders ordered an embargo on criticism of NI Secretary Mo Mowlam even though evidence had emerged appearing to show that she had decided long before to allow the Orangemen through.

There is no guarantee this year that the Republican leadership would either want to, or be able to restrain its supporters from reacting violently in the event of an Orange victory.

Mrs McIvor's departure is being seen as the SDLP expressing its disapproval of the Parades Commission's current direction. A former SDLP treasurer who is trusted by John Hume, Mrs McIvor was rumoured to be close to resignation last year when it seemed the Commission might get powers to police nationalist sporting and cultural events. She denied there were reasons other than personal for leaving.

Last December the Commission received a blow from the other direction when the Rev Roy Magee, a confidante of the main Loyalist paramilitaries, resigned apparently because of growing unease at the prospect of re-routing Orange parades.

The new members include former Vanguard and UDA luminary Glenn Barr and community worker cum Apprentice Boy, Tommy Cheevers who is said to be a friend of leading Progressive Unionist figures. The PUP is the political wing of the UVF.

While the Commission had no doubts about recruiting a member of a Loyal Order, by contrast there is no evidence of it having approached nationalist resident groups for nominees.

The two new Catholics have no nationalist links. Barrister Rose-Ann McCormick was a member of the Police Authority for six years; solicitor Aidan Canavan, an ex-SDLP man, acts for the RUC Federation and represented relatives of the British intelligence agents killed in the Chinook helicopter crash.

It is understood that the Commission approached SDLP members but was rebuffed. Similarly the Irish government could find no nationalists willing to put their names forward. The Commission offers members an annual salary of over £IR30,000 to tempt them to take on the job.

The appointments were criticised by the SDLP's Brid Rodgers, whose brief includes assisting the Irish government to select suitable nominees for Quango's. Nationalist residents groups have declared their opposition to the Commission and especially its chairman Alastair Graham. Brendam MacCionnaith of the Gravaghy residents said the appointments "must certainly strip away any semblance of alleged impartiality or independence from the Parades Commission".

Parades Commission Row: Sunday Tribune

Trimble Rules Out Change of Venue: Sunday Tribune

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