(by Ed Moloney, Sunday Tribune)

Ed Moloney gives an assessment of how the votes and seats could go next week.

ANTRIM NORTH: Jayne Dunlop - Alliance; Sean Farren - SDLP; John Kelly, -Sinn Féin; the Rev Ian Paisley - DUP; Lexie Scott, - UUP

(1997 result: DUP - 47%; SDLP - 24%; SF - 6%; ALL - 6%)

The simplest of all to predict. Not quite the force he used to be but always a vote-puller, Ian Paisley will once again be the MP for North Antrim on June 8th. Will this be his last outing? Don't take it for granted. The only other interest is the SF-SDLP contest represented by Provo founder, John Kelly (he of the Arms Crisis) and SDLP minister Sean Farren.

ANTRIM EAST: Roy Beggs, - UUP; Jeanette Graffin - Sinn Féin; Alan Greer - Conservative; Robert Mason - Independent; John Mathews - Alliance; Danny O'Connor - SDLP; Sammy Wilson - DUP

(1997 result: UUP - 39%; All - 20%; DUP - 19%; SDLP - 5%; SF - 2%)

Again this is a straightforward seat, a safe one for sitting Ulster Unionist, Roy Beggs. The intriguing feature about this contest was the decision by Beggs, once a trenchant Trimble critic, to switch over to the pro-agreement side during the campaign, or at least that's what it looked like. Could it be that he sniffed which way the wind is blowing?

ANTRIM SOUTH: Norman Boyd - NI Unionist Party; David Burnside - UUP; David Ford - Alliance; the Rev William McCrea - DUP; Sean McKee - SDLP; Martin Meehan - Sinn Féin

(2000 by-election result: DUP - 38%; UUP - 35%; SDLP - 11%; SF - 8%; ALL - 7%)

Which result would suit Trimble best, the anti-agreement McCrea winning or the anti-agreement Burnside? It depends on what happens elsewhere. If the DUP do well in other seats a McCrea victory would be a disaster; if not then Burnside's sting could be blunted. It would be pulled altogether if there's an arms deal by July 1st. Assembly Member, Norman Boyd's intervention could help the Ulster Unionists.

BELFAST EAST: David Alderdice - Alliance; Joe Bell - Workers' Party; Terence Dick - Conservative; David Ervine - PUP; Ciara Farren -SDLP; George Weiss, - Rainbow (Vote For Yourself Party); Tim Lemon - UUP; Joe O'Donnell - Sinn Féin; Peter Robinson - DUP

(1997 result: DUP - 42%; UUP - 25%; All - 24%)

The SDLP refused to stand aside here to give Alliance's David Alderdice a chance of beating Peter Robinson and once again this result seems a formality. One of the best election campaigners on the island, the only interest will be the size of Robinson's majority.

BELFAST NORTH: Marcella Delane - Workers' Party; Nigel Dodds - DUP; George Weiss, Rainbow -Vote For Yourself Party; Gerry Kelly - Sinn Féin; Alban Maginness - SDLP; Cecil Walker - UUP

!1997 result: UUP - 52%; SDLP - 20%; SF - 20%)

One of the tightest contests in the North. About the only thing all the parties are agreed upon is that the ageing Cecil Walker's days as an MP could be over. The pragmatic DUP'er Nigel Dodds is regarded as the favourite but watch out for tactical voting by Nationalists. The Alliance party, which won over 2,000 votes in 1998, has stood down and that should give Alban Maginnis the edge over SF's Gerry Kelly. By the way just whose idea was it to catch the shuttle to Belfast after planting a car bomb outside Scotland Yard?

BELFAST SOUTH : George Weiss, Rainbow - Vote For Yourself Party; Paddy Lynn - Workers' Party; Alex Maskey - Sinn Féin; Dr Alasdair McDonnell - SDLP; Monica McWilliams - Northern Ireland Women's Coalition; Dawn Purvis - PUP; Geraldine Rice - Alliance; the Rev Martin Smyth - UUP

(1997 result: UUP - 35%; SDLP - 24%; All - 13%; PUP - 14%; SF - 5%)

With his opposition shredded the Rev Martin Smyth must be the favourite to retain this seat. A strong critic of the Trimble strategy this must be Smyth's last outing and with the seat undergoing demographic change interest will concentrate on what the result could say about the next election. The contest between the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell and SF's increasingly menopausal Alex Maskey will be an interesting test of Nationalist opinion. Others, notably NIWC's Monica McWilliams and Alliance's Geraldine Rice, are really fighting the next Assembly poll.

BELFAST WEST: Gerry Adams - Sinn Féin; Alex Attwood - SDLP; George Weiss, Rainbow - Vote For Yourself Party; David Kerr - Ulster Third Way; John Lowry - Workers Party; Chris McGimpsey - UUP; Eric Smyth - DUP

(1997 result: SF - 56%; SDLP - 39%)

Another formality; the only question is will Gerry Adams increase his majority? It seems likely. Dissident Republicans had toyed with the idea of running against him but couldn't get their act together. Cue the sound of vintage wine corks popping on the Suffolk Road. The only factor which could cut into his vote is grassroots Provo unhappiness at the IRA's refusal to shoot joyriders and vandals in places like Ballymurphy. Wait till they sign up to the new police service!

DOWN NORTH: Chris Carter - Independent; Marietta Farrell - SDLP; Lady Sylvia Hermon - UUP; Robert McCartney - UK Unionist Party; Eamon McConvery - Sinn Féin; Julian Robertson - Conservative

(1997 result: McC - 35%; UUP - 31%; All - 21%)

This contest is all about Lady Sylvia versus Bob McCartney. Once more Alliance stood down to give the pro-agreement side the best chance and churls that they are the Ulster Unionists refused to reciprocate in East Belfast. This is a big one for David Trimble; if he does badly elsewhere Bob's silver scalp hanging on his belt could be ample recompense. Sylvia Hermon must be the favourite.

DOWN SOUTH: Betty Campbell - Alliance Party; Eddie McGrady - SDLP; Mick Murphy - Sinn Féin; Dermot Nesbitt - UUP; Jim Wells - DUP

(1197 result: SDLP - 53%; UUP - 33%; SF - 10%)

This is Eddie McGrady's seat. It has been since 1986 and unless or until the SDLP man falls under a bus or otherwise the grim reaper comes a'calling it always will be. The Provos have never been able to get off the ground in South Down and the reason is simple. The plantation was very different in this part of Ireland. Here the settlers bought their land. Elsewhere they just took it.

FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE: James Cooper - UUP; Tommy Gallagher - SDLP; Michelle Gildernew - Sinn Féin; Jim Dixon - Independent-United Unionist

(1997 result: UUP - 51%; SF - 23%; SDLP - 23%)

It would take a massive swing to Enniskillen bomb victim Jim Dixon and massive tactical voting by Nationalists to deprive James Cooper of Ken Maginniss' inheritance. If that happens say good night to David Trimble. SF's choice of a candidate is interesting. Michelle Gildernew's family staged the Caledon housing sit-in in 1968 and that sparked the civil rights campaign. She has no IRA track record at all. For that reason party bosses preferred her to former prisoner Gerry McGeough whose track record is up there with Dan Breen et al. Evidence perhaps that the Provos should change their slogan from 'Tiocfaidh ar la' to 'Eaten bread is soon forgot'.

FOYLE: Colm Cavanagh - Alliance; Andrew Davidson - UUP; William Hay - DUP; John Hume - SDLP; Mitchel McLaughlin - Sinn Féin

(1997 result: SDLP - 53%; SF - 24%; DUP - 22%)

This contest is really about the next election and which Nationalist candidate is best placed to inherit John Hume's mantle. Its no secret that Hume has always disliked Westminster and would have preferred to hand the seat over to Mark Durkin but alas poor Mark is judged not to have the charisma to see off Mitchel McLaughlin, at least not yet. Does that mean Mitchel McLaughlin does have charisma?

LAGAN VALLEY: Paul Butler - Sinn Féin; Seamus Close - Alliance; Jeffrey Donaldson - UUP; Patricia Lewsley - SDLP; Edwin Poots - DUP

(1997 result: UUP - 55%; All - 17%; DUP - 14%)

I was once on a radio phone-in programme with Edwin Poots and its not difficult to work out why young Jeffrey will once again romp home for the Ulster Unionists. Donaldson has been ominously quiet during this campaign but if the votes in other seats go the DUP's way the decibels will drown you.

DERRY EAST: Yvonne Boyle - Alliance; Francie Brolly - Sinn Féin; Gregory Campbell - DUP; John Dallat - SDLP; William Ross - UUP

(1997 result: UUP - 36%; DUP - 26%; SDLP - 22%)

Willie Ross is a fly-fisher and spends summers casting lines over the rivers of south-west Scotland. He knows how to stalk and lure his prey. He is also a pretty fly politician. Conventional wisdom has it that Gregory Campbell may steal this seat but don't bet on it.

MID ULSTER: Francie Donnelly - Workers' Party; Eilis Haughey - SDLP; Ian McCrea - DUP; Martin McGuinness - Sinn Féin

(1997 result: SF - 40%; DUP - 36%; SDLP - 22%)

The photograph of the campaign was in The Daily Telegraph last week; Martin McGuinness (another fly fisher) cradling twins and head back laughing uproariously. Talk about an image makeover! Notice the political progeny running here. Ian McCrea, son of the Rev. Willie and Eilis Haughey, daughter of junior Executive minister, Denis. Adams and McGuinness kept theirs under wraps while the war was raging. The ancient Irish practice of dynasty building demands a rethink. Watch this space. In the meantime the former Adjutant of the Derry Brigade is home and dry.

NEWRY AND ARMAGH: Paul Berry - DUP; Seamus Mallon - SDLP; Conor Murphy - Sinn Féin; Sylvia McRoberts - UUP

(1997 result: SDLP - 43%; UUP - 34%; SF - 21%)

This is another contest that is really about the next election. Seamus Mallon is running for the last time and Conor Murphy must fancy his chances in 2005. In the meantime defeat for Mallon is about as likely as a smile breaking out on his face.

STRANGFORD: Liam Johnston - Sinn Féin; Danny McCarthy - SDLP; Kieran McCarthy - Alliance; David McNarry - UUP; Iris Robinson - DUP; Cedric Wilson - NI Unionist Party

(1997 result UUP - 44%; DUP - 30%; All - 13%)

Cedric Wilson, he of the ubiquitous one-man Loyalist protest, is the only factor that could mess up Iris Robinson's prospects and the chances of the DUP Family Robinson becoming the wealthiest political clan in Ireland. If David McNarry does pull it off then that's a sign that Trimble is home and dry.

UPPER BANN: Tom French - Workers' Party; Dolores Kelly - SDLP; Dara O'Hagan - Sinn Féin; David Simpson - DUP; David Trimble - UUP

(1997 result: UUP - 44%; SDLP - 24%; SF - 12%; DUP - 11%)

In the last four elections Tom French's vote has gone from 2,004, to 1,120, to 311 to 554. Why does he bother? Seriously though David Trimble better win this one or it really is over. The DUP say they can do it but if they really do believe that why didn't they stand someone of substance, say Ian Paisley Jnr?

WEST TYRONE: Pat Doherty - Sinn Féin; Brid Rodgers - SDLP; William Thompson - UUP

(1997 result: UUP - 35%; SDLP - 32%; SF - 31%)

The Foot and Mouth epidemic transformed this contest.. Earlier this year Sinn Fein thought they had it in the bag and that Doherty - known as 'Smiler' to his friends - would be grinning all the way to victory. But an SDLP brainwave to parachute in Brid Rodgers and her performance as Minister of Agricuture during the epidemic has made her the favourite. Willie Thompson could however nip in if the Nationalist vote splits evenly.